Due to a crackdown on international students, Canada population decline accelerated in the third quarter of 2025. For a nation that has historically attributed its economic expansion to immigration, the decline represents a significant reversal.
It is estimated that the population fell by 76,068 people between July 1 and October 1, 2025, representing a 0.2 percent reduction.
The decline stands in sharp contrast to the strong population growth Canada experienced in recent years and highlights the impact of tighter immigration policies aimed at curbing temporary resident levels.
According to data, the decrease was driven primarily by a significant drop in non-permanent residents following federal policy changes introduced over the past two years.
What is Causing Canada Population Decline
The Canada population decline in Q3 2025 reflects a reversal from earlier trends. In Q3 2023, Canada recorded its highest quarterly growth rate since 1957 at 1 percent, followed by continued growth of 0.6 percent in Q3 2024.
By contrast, third quarter of 2025 decline marks the first population decrease reported by Statistics Canada this year. Most provinces and territories either lost population or saw minimal change during the quarter, indicating a broad national shift rather than a localized trend.
Provincial and Territorial Population Changes
Ontario and British Columbia experienced the largest population declines during Q3 2025, falling by 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Manitoba and the Northwest Territories each declined by 0.2 percent.
Only Alberta and Nunavut recorded population increases, both posting modest growth of 0.2 percent. Statistics Canada reported that nearly all provinces and territories had fewer non-permanent residents on October 1 than on July 1, reinforcing the national scope of the decline.
Role of Non-Permanent Residents
According to available data that the number of non-permanent residents fell by 176,479 during Q3 2025, making it the primary driver of the overall population decline. As of October 1, 2025, non-permanent residents decreased from 3,024,216, or 7.3 percent of the population, to approximately 2,847,737, or 6.8 percent.
The reduction was caused by record outflows of non-permanent residents, totaling 339,505 during the quarter, compared to inflows of 163,026. This imbalance produced the largest quarterly net loss of non-permanent residents on record.
Declines were concentrated among study permit holders, down by 73,682; individuals holding both work and study permits, down by 67,616; and work permit holders, down by 35,231.
Ontario and British Columbia accounted for the largest drops in study permit holders, with decreases of 47,511 and 14,291, respectively.
Effects on Asylum and Permanent Immigration
Despite the overall decline, there have been continued growth in the number of asylum claimants and protected persons. This population increased by 7,324 during Q3 2025, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth and reaching a record high of 504,767. However, the pace of increase was slower than in previous years.
Permanent immigration helped offset some of the population loss linked to reduced temporary resident numbers. Canada admitted 102,867 new permanent residents during Q3 2025, consistent with trends observed since Q4 2024 and aligned with targets set under Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan for 2025 to 2027.
Policy Background and Government Strategy
The decline in non-permanent residents is closely tied to several federal immigration policy changes implemented over the past two years. These include a moratorium on low-wage Labor Market Impact Assessments in regions with unemployment rates above 6 percent, restrictions on spousal open work permits, and stricter eligibility requirements for Post-Graduation Work Permits, including language and field-of-study criteria.
In addition, the federal government introduced a cap on study permit applications for 2025, set at 550,162, with only 437,000 permits to be issued. This represents a 10 percent reduction compared to 2024.
These measures form part of a broader strategy to reduce the number of temporary residents to 5 percent of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027, reflecting concerns about housing supply, infrastructure capacity, and labor market balance.
Key Takeaways
- Canada’s population declined by 76,068 people in Q3 2025, a 0.2 percent decrease.
- The decline was driven primarily by a sharp reduction in non-permanent residents.
- Ontario and British Columbia recorded the largest provincial population losses.
- Asylum claimant numbers continued to rise, but at a slower pace.
- Permanent immigration partially offset losses and remained aligned with federal targets.
The third-quarter 2025 population decline in Canada signals a clear turning point in the country’s recent demographic trajectory.
As federal policies continue to prioritize reductions in temporary resident levels, population growth is increasingly dependent on permanent immigration streams.
How these measures affect labor markets, housing demand, and long-term demographic stability will remain a key focus as Canada advances toward its 2027 population targets.
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