Birthright Citizenship Repeal Will Boost U.S. Unauthorized Population

Birthright citizenship repeal for U.S. children born to unauthorized immigrants or other noncitizens would produce effects contrary to its intended goal of decreasing unauthorized immigration. New estimates from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and Penn State’s Population Research Institute indicate that such a repeal would notably increase the unauthorized population, both now and for generations to come. The topic of birthright citizenship has surfaced intermittently throughout history, gaining renewed attention in January when President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at ending this citizenship for children born to specific noncitizens. This order has faced legal challenges regarding its constitutionality and stipulates that only children of at least one U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident parent would acquire U.S. citizenship automatically. According to new MPI and Penn State projections, eliminating birthright citizenship for U.S.-born children with unauthorized or temporary immigrant parents could lead to an additional 2.7 million individuals without authorization by 2045 and 5.4 million by 2075. Over the next five decades, an estimated average of 255,000 children born on U.S. soil would start their lives without U.S. citizenship due to their parents' legal status. These projections are conservative and based on a methodology by MPI-Penn State that assesses the demographic characteristics of the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population, which stood at 13.7 million as of mid-2023. The end of birthright citizenship for these children would create a multigenerational underclass, with U.S.-born residents inheriting the social disadvantages faced by their parents, grandparents, and beyond. By 2075, around 1.7 million U.S.-born individuals could lack citizenship or legal status, despite having U.S.-born parents themselves. Creating a class of U.S.-born residents devoid of citizenship rights could significantly disrupt social cohesion and economic mobility in the future. The Trump executive order, temporarily blocked by three federal appeals courts, is set for review by the Supreme Court on May 15. This swift scheduling indicates the serious constitutional and presidential powers issues at play. Advocates argue that repealing birthright citizenship is essential for reducing unauthorized immigration; however, it could lead to the opposite outcome. An exception exists for children of foreign diplomats, who do not gain U.S. citizenship at birth. The MPI-Penn State analysis projects that if birthright citizenship were removed for children of non-birthright parents, the unauthorized population could grow by 40 percent by 2075 compared to the current framework. This increase would result in an unauthorized population 2.7 million higher in 2045 and 5.4 million higher in 2075 than if birthright citizenship remained unchanged. The analysis takes into account likely births to non-birthright parents yearly and acknowledges that not all children born to these parents will spend their lives in the U.S. Many U.S.-born and immigrant children leave the country, either willingly or due to deportation. Research indicates approximately 500,000 U.S.-born children were living in Mexico as of 2020. MPI and Penn State analysts assume that these U.S.-born children would transition to unauthorized status at the same rate as their parents (around 3.5 percent per year), either through legalization or leaving the U.S. This assumption could be incorrect; if U.S.-born children stay in the country at higher rates than their parents, the unauthorized population could increase even more. Assuming steady in-migration and out-migration rates, one wonders what would happen if the U.S. government effectively closed its borders to illegal entries and heightened deportations. Even if unauthorized immigrants left in larger numbers due to their children's inability to gain U.S. citizenship, changes to birthright citizenship would still produce an unauthorized population 1.3 million larger in both 2045 and 2075 compared to existing rules. To analyze the implications of ending birthright citizenship, MPI and Penn State evaluated annual births between 2025 and 2075 to two parents who are unauthorized immigrants or on temporary visas. Their research began with MPI’s estimates of the unauthorized and temporary visa-holding populations in 2023. This temporary population primarily consists of individuals on student or work visas. The analysts forecast how many U.S.-born children of non-birthright parents would exist in the future, assuming consistency in rates of migration, death, and fertility until 2075. They show that on average, 222,000 children will be born annually to non-birthright immigrant parents, leading to approximately 4.7 million births by 2045 and 11.1 million by 2075. With U.S.-born unauthorized parents included, these totals climb to 4.8 million by 2045 and 12.8 million by 2075. While not all these children would remain as unauthorized residents, the phenomenon creates a new class deprived of full citizenship rights. U.S. citizens labeled as unauthorized would struggle to work legally, access essential support during hardship, benefit from in-state tuition or financial aid in many states, and fully participate in society. This lack of citizenship would undermine America’s remarkable history of integrating immigrant families, with their children typically achieving greater success than their parents. Amidst an aging population and with immigrants and their U.S.-born children driving labor force growth, the inability of these individuals to work legally will foster a group confined to low-wage jobs, ultimately stunting overall economic growth. Moreover, the repeal would generate significant administrative burdens and confusion. Ending automatic birthright citizenship would replace a simple citizenship determination rule with a more complex, implementation-heavy process that affects citizens, hospitals, and government agencies. While proponents of repeal often raise concerns about "birth tourism," which refers to foreign women giving birth in the U.S. to secure citizenship for their babies, the data indicates this occurs rarely. Approximately 9,000 births from nonresident mothers were registered among the 3.6 million U.S. births annually, according to the CDC. Alternative measures, including visa enforcement and airline screening, could address the issue far more efficiently than altering a constitutional right established over 150 years ago. Repealing the guarantee of birthright citizenship would lead to the creation of a legally and socially marginalized class of individuals, impacting society and the economy for generations. This situation reflects an unprecedented shift in U.S. immigration law, perpetuating the disadvantages faced by future generations due to their parents’ legal status. Ultimately, despite significant concerns surrounding the implications of this policy, repealing birthright citizenship does not effectively tackle its stated problems; it could exacerbate them, increasing the unauthorized population to 2.7 million by 2045 and 5.4 million by 2075. The demographic consequences of such a repeal stand in stark contrast to its intended purpose, revealing a troubling path for America's foundational principles of fairness and justice. Source: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/birthright-citizenship-repeal-projections

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